Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.207364 2.945561 3.954179 5.469364 7.753674e+00 1.118290e+01 1.695433e+01
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.556902 2.390784 3.757775 6.304616 1.129532e+01 2.157166e+01 4.748546e+01
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.110860 1.907056 3.423344 6.839693 1.545180e+01 4.031473e+01 1.441449e+02
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.896266 1.714443 3.525646 8.530537 2.548850e+01 1.023412e+02 8.461776e+02
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.723212 1.520900 3.544783 10.362206 4.207528e+01 2.961430e+02 1.183148e+04
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.598689 1.373722 3.612432 12.836139 7.430997e+01 1.174440e+03 9.306594e+06
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.496137 1.228856 3.608916 15.523580 1.330892e+02 7.035660e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.386053 1.006632 3.192472 15.806317 1.873641e+02 4.150978e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.298774 0.809797 2.725171 15.110661 2.385562e+02 3.710989e+05 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.249132 0.707855 2.565119 16.483819 3.938002e+02 1.762972e+09 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.221539 0.665958 2.643437 20.577488 9.186901e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.204424 0.653164 2.870963 28.112496 3.169343e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.179779 0.604118 2.896896 34.985648 1.193043e+04 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.149440 0.516394 2.601569 35.609945 2.836282e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.123412 0.435022 2.271198 34.134407 5.894210e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.109671 0.401475 2.245744 40.755503 6.390273e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.097433 0.368738 2.194691 47.640917 5.564005e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.087936 0.344450 2.189120 58.041286 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.079317 0.320264 2.159207 69.254501 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.068383 0.279011 1.920202 65.979210 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.058482 0.239495 1.660308 58.477076 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.052503 0.218843 1.571555 62.529909 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.049229 0.211605 1.617219 80.679258 NaN NaN NaN